9/29 Analysis: 2 Profitable NY Session Trades
2 Profitable NY Session Trades
About 1 minute into the NY session, we have a strong AUD (orange line) with momentum (steep line to the far right) and the EUR (pink line) is weak also showing current momentum to the downside.
- EUR/AUD SELL
By the time we see the momentum on our indicator, you could have entered anywhere from 1 minute to 3 minutes into that opening price bar. The move was over 60 pips total.
However, worst case scenario if you waited until the close of that price bar, you still would have had a 27 pip move down before any pull back.
When you watch the entire video analysis below, I’ll show you another profitable breakout trade from today’s NY session:
[00:00 – 05:12]
[slide] [8 currencies on black – all static at/above zero but red]
Hello, I’m James Edward from CompleteCurrencyTrader.com. Welcome to today’s Currency Strength Analysis training video and today we are looking at a possible break out or two possible break outs at the New York Open.
So, this is what the indicator on my Web site looked like at the New York Open. So, if you do you initial analysis, looking for a weak currency which is continuing to weaken, and down here [points red line] we have a very obvious (red) British Pound (GBP) and match that against a very strong currency which is continuing to get stronger. And, on the strong side, perhaps there isn’t anything that’s continuing to get stronger as the (red) British Pound (GBP) is on the weak side.
Now, in this situation, because we don’t have the very steep lines (over here on the right hand side), [points generally] you wouldn’t be taking any action right away or I certainly wouldn’t recommend that you do. My advice would be to wait for a couple of minutes, just to see if, as the Market opens, the momentum does kick in, there is the flurry of order activity and we see some movement on one or two currencies. So, right now, I would just be waiting to see how things develop.
Now, if I fast forward the indicator–
[slide] [2nd view: 1 min right, red wandering, pink down, lilac / blue / orange up]
(continues) … just one minute, you can now see something very quickly begin to develop. Remember this is exactly one minute into the Market Open and now you have the (pink) Euro (EUR) which is starting to move steeply down to steepness and, on the strong side, you have the (lilac) New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the (orange) Australian Dollar (AUD) which are starting to move steeply up to strength.
That is what we’re always looking for. We’re looking for steepness [points generally] over here on the right hand side of the indicator. The (red) British Pound (GBP), which had been trending down at the start of the New York Open, is now, actually, starting to turn back up, so that’s not a currency that you’d want to trade, even though that one stands out on the indicator. It’s certainly not moving right now and it’s certainly not moving in the right direction, whereas the (pink) Euro (EUR) looks absolutely fantastic, as does the (orange) Australian Dollar (AUD) and the (lilac) New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
You could enter right now or you could just be watching again, waiting for a little bit more confirmation, but this is the one-minute point.
If I fast forward it by just another two minutes–
[slide] [3rd view: 2 more min right, pink steeply down, orange / lilac steeply up]
(continues) … This is three minutes after the Open, so you have that opportunity from one minute up to three minutes and you could’ve entered at any point with a sale on the (pink) Euro (EUR), buying the (orange) Australian Dollar (AUD) or the (lilac) New Zealand Dollar (NZD). So you compare the Euro with either of those two currencies.
So, if I go over to the–
[slide] [B&W vertical line EURAUD.MS]
(continues) … charts now, this is the Euro:AUD five-minute price chart and this [points 1st long bar left of ctr] is the price bar that coincides with the New York Open. You can see [creates cross pt, top long bar] from the actual Open, the price, in total (within the first five minutes), dropped down [line drawn to bottom same bar] 47 pips; and, down to the lowest point here before any pull back, you’re [diag line to bttm 5 bars right] looking at over 60 pips.
So, you could’ve entered at any point on this [back to 1st long bar, left] price bar. Remember, you have the opportunity–
[slide] [previous 3rd view indicator: 1 min right, blue / yel /orange up]
(continues) … if I go back to the indicator, from the one-minute into the Market up to the three-minute point for things–
[slide] [B&W vertical line EURAUD.MS]
(continues) … to get really obvious. So, anywhere along [points along same long bar] here, had you entered within that first three minutes of the Market opening, you would’ve easily got[ten] your 20-pip profit.
Even if you’d [creates next cross pt 2 bars, 5 min right of 1st long bar] entered at the close of that five minutes price bar–so, five minutes after the Market had been opened–even from that point [diag line to bttm between 3-4 bars right] the price has gone down 27 pips and you can see very easily and very quickly you’ve been able to walk away with your 20-pip profit on the Euro:AUD.
And, if I bring–
[slide] [B&W vertical line EURNZD.MS]
(continues) … in the Euro / N Zed D, just to show you what the other opportunity was, this [pts 1st longest bar, ctr] is the price bar that coincides with the Open. And, again, from [creates cross pt top same bar] the New York Open down to the [diag line to bttm betw 3-4 bars rt] lowest point before the big pull back, you have almost 50 pips in price movement. You’d have been able to enter anywhere, from one [pts 1-3 min area of ctr long bar] minute up to three minutes (up here) [emphasized pt same spot] in the price bar, but even working on the worst-case scenario, of the close of that price bar, [creates cross pt at ctr 2-3 bars rt] from the close, at the five-minute point, the price has still gone down almost 24 pips.
So, again, very likely you’d have walked away with your profit of 20 pip there.
[slide] [previous 3rd view indicator: 1 min right, blue / pink down, orange / lilac up]
(continues) … And, what I’m really hoping to emphasize there is why that is so important to be patient and wait for these steep moves. [indicates far rt lines] These are the high-probability moves. When you are entering, particularly, on the simple break-out strategy that you are using with this simple, introductory system, if you are trading that break out, the whole point of the break out is that you are capturing a very fast move in the Market, which is much more like it happened at the Open, which is why we’re trading the break out at the Open of a financial center. And, when you have these steep lines–they’re moving like this–that is your chance at achieving that high-probability profit nice and quickly, so that is why it is important [pointer circles steep lines, rt] to wait for those ideal conditions and look for the [NOTE: no such word “steepner”] steepening of the lines over [points again, rt steep lines] here on the right-hand side of the indicator.
You can see that our Currency Strength Indicator is an effective tool for picking out the highest probability, lowest risk trade set ups while avoiding market conditions that aren’t favorable. If you keep using this tool every day along with our daily Forex analysis, you will increase your win rate and be on your way to becoming a profitable trader long term.
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